Variance

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Definition

Variance is what differentiates stories that share the same foundation.

Two moments in a set can have the exact same kick, the same BPM, the same Weight — and still feel completely different. One is a locked-in groove. The other is a tension-filled build about to explode. The kick didn’t change. Everything around the kick did. That difference is Variance.

If Foundation answers “what is the anchor?”, Variance answers:

“What is changing around the anchor right now?”

The Key Insight: Variance Is Relative to the Kick

Because the kick is the single reliably detectable element in a live techno signal (see Foundation for why), Variance is defined as everything in the audio signal that is not the kick, measured relative to the kick.

The system cannot isolate individual synths, hi-hats, or effects from each other. But it can measure how the total spectral environment changes from beat to beat and bar to bar, using the kick as the fixed reference point. The kick’s position in the frequency spectrum is known and stable. Everything else is “variance.”

  What the system sees:

  ┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
  │                                                  │
  │  Total audio signal                              │
  │  ████████████████████████████████████████████     │
  │                                                  │
  │  ┌──────────────┐  ┌──────────────────────────┐  │
  │  │ KICK         │  │ EVERYTHING ELSE           │  │
  │  │ (known,      │  │ (unknown, unmeasurable    │  │
  │  │  isolated,   │  │  individually, but its    │  │
  │  │  measured    │  │  aggregate properties     │  │
  │  │  directly)   │  │  can be tracked over time)│  │
  │  └──────────────┘  └──────────────────────────┘  │
  │     Foundation            Variance               │
  └──────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Properties

Variance has three properties:

┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  VARIANCE                                                    │
│                                                              │
│  Direction   ──── rising / stable / falling                  │
│                    Is the energy around the kick going        │
│                    up, staying the same, or coming down?      │
│                    Confirmed value (temporal threshold).      │
│                                                              │
│  Magnitude   ──── continuous (0→1)                           │
│                    How fast or dramatically is it changing?   │
│                    Immediate value (no threshold).            │
│                                                              │
│  Timescale   ──── micro / meso / macro                       │
│                    At what time resolution is the change      │
│                    happening?                                 │
│                                                              │
└──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Direction

Direction is the trend of the energy around the kick. It has three states:

  RISING   ↗  The energy around the kick is increasing.
              More spectral content, higher brightness,
              more density. Tension is building.

  FALLING  ↘  The energy around the kick is decreasing.
              Less content, lower brightness, sparser.
              Energy is resolving.

  STABLE   →  The energy around the kick is not changing
              significantly. Locked in. Consistent groove.

Direction is a confirmed value — it must pass Temporal Thresholds (suggested default: 2 bars of consistent trend) before the model updates. This prevents brief fluctuations from changing the model’s assessment of what the music is doing.

Direction and Story

Direction is the primary driver of Story differentiation. The same heavy kick with rising variance is “escalation.” With stable variance it’s “groove.” With falling variance it’s “wind_down.” Foundation tells you what the anchor is. Direction tells you what the music is doing with that anchor.

Same foundation, different directions:

  ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
  │  RISING ↗                                           │
  │                                                     │
  │  Filter opening. Hats getting busier. Noise rising. │
  │  New layers appearing. Spectral brightness up.      │
  │                                                     │
  │  Story: "escalation" or "build"                     │
  │  Visual: intensifying, expanding, accelerating      │
  └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

  ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
  │  STABLE →                                           │
  │                                                     │
  │  Same density, same brightness, same texture.       │
  │  Nothing adding, nothing stripping. Locked in.      │
  │                                                     │
  │  Story: "groove"                                    │
  │  Visual: sustained, steady, rhythmic                │
  └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

  ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
  │  FALLING ↘                                          │
  │                                                     │
  │  Layers stripping away. Filter closing. Hats gone.  │
  │  Simpler, sparser, quieter (but kick still there).  │
  │                                                     │
  │  Story: "wind_down" or "cool"                       │
  │  Visual: receding, simplifying, calming             │
  └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Magnitude

Magnitude measures how fast or dramatically things are changing. It is a continuous value (0.0 to 1.0) and updates immediately (no temporal threshold).

  Magnitude = 0.0    Nothing is changing. Energy is flat.
                     Pure stable groove.

  Magnitude = 0.3    Slow evolution. A filter is opening
                     over many bars. Layers are gradually
                     appearing. Gentle build.

  Magnitude = 0.6    Noticeable change. Energy is clearly
                     shifting from bar to bar. Something
                     is happening and the audience feels it.

  Magnitude = 1.0    Dramatic change. A sudden explosion of
                     energy, or a sudden strip-back. The
                     spectral environment has transformed
                     within one or two bars.

Magnitude and Story Transitions

High magnitude is a signal that a story transition may be imminent. A sustained high magnitude rising variance often precedes a drop. A sudden spike in magnitude (in any direction) often marks the boundary between two stories.

  Low magnitude rising:
  ░░░▒▒▓▓███  gradual build over many bars
                Story evolves slowly. No transition yet.

  High magnitude rising:
  ░█████████  sudden explosion, immediate escalation
                Story transition likely — the music has
                changed state, not just evolved.

Timescale

Variance manifests at different time resolutions:

  MICRO   (beat to beat)
  ────────────────────────────────────────
  Individual kick variation, swing feel, the subtle
  difference between one beat and the next. A slightly
  louder hi-hat on the offbeat. A tiny filter wobble.
  
  Micro variance is felt but rarely changes the story.
  It contributes to "groove feel" — the human quality
  of the rhythm. It is NOT used for story determination.


  MESO    (bar to bar)
  ────────────────────────────────────────
  Phrase-level energy changes. A 4-bar filter sweep.
  Hi-hats entering or dropping out over a phrase.
  The energy difference between bar 1 and bar 4 of
  a 4-bar loop.
  
  Meso variance is the primary timescale for story
  evolution. Most story transitions are driven by
  meso-level changes accumulating.


  MACRO   (section to section)
  ────────────────────────────────────────
  The arc of a build, breakdown, or drop. The
  energy trajectory over 16, 32, or 64 bars.
  The overall shape of a DJ's set.
  
  Macro variance determines set structure. It is
  the timescale at which stories become narrative —
  "the set started minimal, peaked at 1 AM, then
  wound down."

For Story purposes, Meso and Macro are the primary timescales. Micro variance is felt by the audience and can drive subtle visual detail, but it does not change the Story name.

Variance and Performer Actions

A key design decision: the model does not have a separate “performer override” layer. Performer actions — a DJ sweeping a filter, muting a channel, triggering an effect — change the audio signal. The audio signal feeds the analysis. The analysis feeds Variance.

  DJ turns the filter knob →
    spectral content changes →
      variance indicators shift →
        direction and magnitude update →
          story may transition

  The model reacts to what it hears.
  It does not know or care who caused the change.

This means a DJ who is actively performing is implicitly controlling Variance through their actions. A filter sweep is a Variance input. A mute is a Presence input. An EQ adjustment is a Weight input. The model responds to the result, not the intent.

Examples in Techno

Example 1: The Classic Build

  Time:     Bar 1    Bar 4    Bar 8    Bar 12   Bar 16
  
  Kick:     Same throughout (heavy, present, mid sustain)
  
  Around    Closed   Opening  More     Noise    Peak
  the kick: filter   filter   hats     sweep    brightness
                              added    rising
  
  Variance
  Direction: stable → rising → rising → rising → rising
  Magnitude: 0.0     0.2      0.4      0.7      0.9
  
  Story:    groove → groove → build  → build  → escalation
                              (confirmed after 2 bars)

Example 2: The Strip-Back

  Time:     Bar 1    Bar 4    Bar 8    Bar 12   Bar 16
  
  Kick:     Same throughout (solid, present, dry sustain)
  
  Around    Busy     Hats     Sparser  Just     Just
  the kick: groove   dropping          bass+    kick+
                              losing   kick     click
                              layers
  
  Variance
  Direction: stable → falling → falling → falling → falling
  Magnitude: 0.0     0.3       0.5       0.4       0.2
  
  Story:    groove → groove  → cool    → cool    → minimal
                               (confirmed after 2 bars)

Example 3: The Locked Groove

  Time:     Bar 1    Bar 4    Bar 8    Bar 12   Bar 16
  
  Kick:     Same throughout (punchy, present, mid sustain)
  
  Around    Steady   Steady   Steady   Steady   Steady
  the kick: energy   energy   energy   energy   energy
  
  Variance
  Direction: stable → stable → stable → stable → stable
  Magnitude: 0.0     0.05     0.03     0.07     0.02
  
  Story:    groove → groove → groove → groove → groove
  
  Nothing changed. And that's the point.
  The groove IS the moment.

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